Section 2: Hazard Analysis, Context Analysis, and NS Readiness
While efforts are underway to improve anticipatory action in the context of multiple and overlapping risks, most existing plans remain hazard-specific. To prioritize hazards for anticipatory action, the National Society conducts a thorough analysis of past and projected hazards that have had the greatest humanitarian impact. This process also considers the National Society’s mandate, disaster risk management laws, community expectations, and the availability of reliable forecasts—either nationally or through complementary regional and global forecasting tools.
Part 1: Hazards Analysis
This section provides guidance and tools to support the National Society in selecting appropriate hazards for anticipatory action programming. To avoid starting from scratch, it is recommended to build on existing contingency and response plans developed by the National Society and government legislations, policies and plans. Understanding community perceptions and understanding their anticipatory actions are also a critical part within hazard analysis.
Hazards Analysis Within Existing Contingency and Response Plans
Types of Hazards
Hazard and Risk Data
Part 2: Forecasts
Anticipatory action leverages the window of opportunity between early warnings and the actual impact of hazards. As such, understanding forecasts and collaborating closely with hydrometeorological agencies are essential components of effective anticipatory action. For non-weather-related hazards, National Societies must also engage with a broader range of government bodies—such as Ministries of Environment, Ministries of Health, specialized institutions like dengue control centers, and academic or scientific organizations—to ensure a comprehensive and coordinated approach.
Examples of Stakeholders
National HydroMet Centre
Red Cross Red Crescent
UN Agencies
Example: AA and WPF in Bangladesh
Example: AA in Bangladesh
Example: AA in Philippines
Example: Early Action in Philippines
Example: Nepalese Red Cross and WFP
Stakeholder Mapping
Tools for Engaging Stakeholders
Part 3: Context Analysis
Conducting appropriate context analysis is critical, as climate events interact with multiple risk factors and can have distinct impacts on the vulnerability of different populations. Furthermore, as anticipatory action increasingly addresses multi-hazard and non-weather risks, robust context analysis and scenario planning become essential components of effective anticipatory action programmes.
Part 4: National Society Capacity Strengthening
Even with a strong understanding of forecasts, risk analysis, and reliable predictive tools, particularly, anticipatory action for sudden-onset hazards, such as floods and cyclones, often allows very limited lead time between warnings and event onset. In these contexts, it is therefore critical to ensure strong operational readiness and well-prepared response capacities within National Societies. This section outlines different approaches to analysing and assessing organisational readiness and response capacity to help you identify critical gaps for improving anticipatory action implementation.