Toward Developing a Toolkit for Community-Driven Climate Adaptation: A Realist and Implementation Science Analysis of Urban Informal Settlements in Nairobi, Kenya
- Kevin Usagi Ememwa, Moi University
- Phillip Dinga, African Activists for Climate Justice
- Harron Gitonga, National Environment Management Authority, Kenya
Summary:
The convergence of rapid urbanization and climate change threatens one billion people in urban informal settlements. Communities are developing solutions (Community-Driven Climate Adaptations, or CCA), but the factors underpinning their success or failure are poorly understood, hindering scalability. This study identifies the causal pathways for successful CCA. We conducted a comparative, realist-informed case study in Nairobi’s Mathare and Mukuru settlements. Using a novel qualitative methodology combining Realist Evaluation (Context-Strategy-Mechanism-Outcome) C-S-M-O with Implementation Science frameworks (CFIR, ERIC, RE-AIM), we analyzed desk, qualitative and spatial data to retrodict the generative mechanisms of success and failure.
Our cross-case analysis revealed two core, divergent findings. First, “Economic & Survival Primacy” is a dual mechanism: in Mukuru, a context of relative stability, a ‘Primacy of Payment’ (reliable income) was a key facilitator; in Mathare, a context of acute health crisis, a ‘Primacy of Need’ (basic survival) was a profound barrier. Second, “Agency” is a constructed mechanism: in Mukuru, success was activated by ‘Legitimized & Trusted Agency’ (state partnership + non-sectarian leaders); in Mathare, it was paralyzed by formal state hostility (“Whose Letter?”) and informal community suspicion (“Whose Agent?”).
The identified C-S-M-O configurations form a refined program theory and provide the evidence base for a v1.0 prototype toolkit suite, translating causal logic into actionable guidance for both practitioners and community innovators.
Note:
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This research was part of a multi-country research initiative led by the Global Disaster Preparedness Center of the American Red Cross. Access all final publications here.