El Niño Outlook for Asia Pacific 2026–2027: Hazards, Vulnerability, and RCRC Response
This factsheet, produced by IFRC in July 2026, summarizes expected El Niño impacts across Asia Pacific through 2027 and the preparedness and response activity already underway across the region. El Niño is underway in the tropical Pacific and is expected to bring unusual rainfall and temperature patterns across the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, building on lessons from the 2023/24 cycle.
Expected Hazards
The factsheet outlines four main hazard categories for 2026. Reduced rainfall across South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and the western Pacific is expected to bring drought and water shortages, along with elevated forest fire risk. Increased rainfall and flooding are expected in parts of Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and the Philippines. Rising temperatures and altered weather patterns are expected to increase the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria, while drought conditions raise the risk of forest fires and transboundary haze. These hazards are expected to drive crop failures and food shortages, higher food prices, and stress on health systems from heat-related illness and respiratory impacts from haze, particularly among the elderly and young children.
Compounding Economic Pressures
These climate risks are compounding with economic pressure linked to the Middle East crisis, which is pushing up fuel, fertilizer, and food prices across the region. Southeast Asia and the Pacific face the highest combined climate and price risk, as drought, heat, and rainfall deficits could reduce agricultural production and worsen water shortages. South Asia and Myanmar are more exposed through rising input and food costs, with reduced fertilizer use already threatening rice production and raising the risk of harmful coping strategies among vulnerable households.
Most Vulnerable Countries
Countries with high agricultural dependence are considered particularly vulnerable to El Niño disruption, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Timor-Leste. Per OCHA, the primary risk period is not immediate but falls during key planting and crop development stages in late 2026 and early 2027 if drought conditions continue to intensify. These impacts would add to existing climate pressures in the region, including typhoons, sea-level rise, and monsoon variability.
Country-Level Preparedness and Response
As of July 2026, National Societies across the region were already monitoring and responding to developing conditions. Indonesia had declared Drought Emergency Status in several districts, with Palang Merah Indonesia coordinating a national response and joint border assessments with Timor-Leste. Active early action protocols were in place for floods in Bangladesh, heatwaves and floods in Nepal, riverine floods in Pakistan, and cyclones in the Philippines and Fiji. Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, and the Marshall Islands were monitoring drought and rainfall extremes affecting water security and food production, while Japan, South Korea, and China were tracking heightened risk of heatwaves, typhoons, and flooding. Mongolia was monitoring impacts on pasture conditions and livestock dependent livelihoods.
Lessons from the 2023/24 El Niño
The factsheet draws five lessons from 15 extreme weather DREF operations during the 2023/24 El Niño cycle. El Niño acts as a risk multiplier rather than a hazard itself, manifesting through droughts, floods, heatwaves, water shortages, food insecurity, and livelihood disruption. Flexibility in modalities, timelines, and delivery approaches mattered more than fixed plans, since El Niño related droughts evolve over extended periods. Recommendations include strengthening preparedness and surge readiness through pre-positioned supplies and flexible contingency plans, empowering local volunteers and decentralized response models, adapting assistance to local contexts including cash programming where markets function, and investing in water security, public health, and resilience to link emergency response to longer-term recovery.