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Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone

Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions with interpretable machine learning methods

The present study proposed a novel interpretable machine learning approach to predict household-level evacuation decisions by leveraging easily accessible demographic and resource-related predictors, compared to existing models that mainly rely on psychological factors. An enhanced logistic regression model (that is, an interpretable machine learning approach) was developed for accurate predictions by automatically accounting for nonlinearities […]

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Climate crises Q&A: Why have some recent storms gained so much strength, so quickly?

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Warming oceans and the El Nino phenomenon have caused some storms to gain strength far more rapidly than predicted. When communities are caught off-guard, the results can be devastating. More investment in forecasting, early warning, preparation — and an assist from artificial intelligence — are parts of the solution. An interview with Juan Bazo, climate

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Putting communities in the driver seat: Good practices from the Philippines

In the spirit of the localization agenda, the flood resilience project of the Philippine Red Cross accompanies, enables, and connects communities to become more resilient to floods and other hazards. We facilitated a participatory whole-of-community process to design evidence-based and risk-informed community resilience building interventions. In this process, community members could voice their needs and

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Translating Warnings into Action – How we can Improve Early Warning Systems to Protect Communities

Early warnings for hazards are essential for living safely and minimizing economic losses.  For many hazards, it is possible to give advance notice and accurate information to help communities prepare and respond.  However, issuance of the warning itself is not enough for a warning system to be effective, as the effectiveness of warnings is determined

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Flood Resilience Alliance: Honduras Informe Nacional

Honduras se encuentra entre los primeros cinco países más vulnerables del planeta, según el índice de Riesgo Climático (IRC) que elabora cada año Germanwatch. Los efectos de los desastres impactan negativamente el desarrollo e incrementan la pobreza. En las dos últimas décadas, los desastres han ocasionado pérdidas y daños al país equivalentes a 5592 millones

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Flood Resilience Alliance: Costa Rica Informe Nacional

En Costa Rica las condiciones de vulnerabilidad, como el incremento de población sin planificación, la mala distribución y uso del suelo, y el terreno montañoso y con pendientes pronunciadas, han provocado desequilibrios ecológicos de gran magnitud, en donde una de las consecuencias son las inundaciones devastadoras con desbordamientos súbitos. Los ríos La Estrella, Limoncito, Banano,

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Flood Resilience Alliance: Costa Rica Country Briefing

In Costa Rica, drivers of vulnerability such as unplanned population growth, poor distribution and use of land, and the mountainous and steeply sloping terrain have led to great ecological imbalances. One of the consequences is devastating flooding with sudden overflows. The La Estrella, Limoncito, Banano, Reventazón, Matina, and Pacuare rivers, in the Limón province, and

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Forecast-based Financing: Effective early actions to reduce flood impacts

Led by the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society and supported by the German Red Cross, the Bangladesh FbF project is at the forefront of experience with FbF activation and funding delivery in the Asia-Pacific region.  This case study examines the effectiveness of distributing unconditional cash grants to affected people as an early action measure in the

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